توضیحات
The ever-increasing expansion of electricity transmission networks has led to their complexity and uncertainty; so the level of risk in electricity transmission networks has been increased. Each electricity transmission network’s component features certain operational uncertainties. As the number of electricity transmission network components and their complexity increases, the importance of reliability risk identification, assessment, and management becomes clearer. It is since the objectives of the power sector are providing reliable and high-quality electricity for customers and hence fostering economic growth. In this sense, a suitable and cohesive mechanism should be implemented to coordinate key players, facilitate the flow of relevant data, and improve the reliability risk management process continuously. Also, preparing relevant standards and instructions in power generation, transmission, and distribution sectors will be useful to:
• Improve reliability risk management discipline and assign specific duties to key players
• Improve the process of root cause identification and prediction applied to the electricity sector’s incidents
• Organize knowledge management
• Increase electricity transmission network’s reliability, security, and resilience
In this light, several experienced international institutes/associations have published standards and technical reports on reliability risk assessment and management. Among them are the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) with proven experience in reliability studies of North America’s power systems and the International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE) with proven experience in various aspects of power systems.
According to NERC, a conceptual risk model should be developed where three layers namely incidents, required standards, and conditions exist. Proposed risk assessment methods are based on the level of impact and likelihood of occurrence indices. Certain formulas are proposed to estimate/quantify the level of risk’s impact. Several aspects of risk management like analysis, monitoring, and responding to risk are also discussed.
Based on CIGRE, risk management should be done within three strategic, tactical, and operational management. Value criteria are well as corresponding financial implications are specified in the strategic management layer to form a basis to estimate the level of impact for risks. In the tactical management layer, costs associated with action in responding and not responding to risks are estimated and compared using an economical method and suitable action will be identified. In the operational management layer, reliability data should be collected for power system components to estimate the likelihood of occurrence for risk events. Therefore, both level and impact and the likelihood of occurrence will be ready to assess the risk severity.
The basic orientation in both NERC and CIGRE reports is to identify high-risk incidents in the power system based on available information and manage the risks associated with those incidents while considering the cost implication of those risks.
In this vein, the present report has been produced to introduce a comprehensive standard for reliability risk assessment and management in electricity transmission networks. Basic terms and definitions are stated and available and proposed methods for risk identification, modeling, assessment, and management are discussed. Basic approaches to identify the likelihood of occurrence and level of impact for threat events/scenarios are sketched and the level of risk is assessed using the level of impact – likelihood of occurrence matrix. The proposed methods to attribute financial implications to various risk levels are described and on this basis, suitable action in responding to risks and their monitoring are discussed. The last section concludes this report.
The proposed standard can be applied to all equipment of electricity transmission network inclusive of power transformers, transmission lines, power switches, relays, etc. Entire impacts of various sub-components shall be taken into account within the corresponding higher-level components This report might be of interest for various audience among them are electricity transmission planners to include system risks in their expansion plans, power system experts to generalize this standard to other sectors like generation and distribution, various organizations to grasp a systematic insight on risk management, etc.
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